For several years now, the NATO Studies Centre together with the National School of Political and Administrative Sciences have organized an annual conference in Bucharest entitled Bucharest Security Conference (BSC). The events from 2014, namely the annexation of Crimea, pushed the academic environment and the political one towards public and academic debate and discussion. This conference became a necessity, which is why in 2016 it was organized for the first time in Bucharest, intending to discuss in a different tone the security matters in Eastern Europe, and especially security in the Black Sea basin.
Today, September 16, 2022, I was invited to this event where academics and specialists from various domains like military, economics, and politics discussed the current crises. Of course, the discussions started from the war in Ukraine, but their analyses went way beyond that.
One of the speakers present at the conference was Prof. Vasile Secares, a specialist in international relations theory that spoke years ago about a probable war considering the international context.
Vasile Secares at the BSC 2022: We need a strategic analysis based on realist approaches, like neorealism. We have to take into account reality and the geographical map.
We all agree on the characteristics of the present stage. Some years ago we saw this coming, a new reality, and an increased use of the military instrument.
I remember that I had an opportunity of being present in ‘89 at Fukuyama’s speech. Even then, he had a very specific image of the world. In ‘81- ‘91 we entered a new phase of the transition; we entered a turbulent period characterized by dramatic evolutions with a change of powers. That stage was a soft one. Now we enter the hard phase of the power distribution. And we see a dramatic change in the power distribution. China is already the second superpower. We never assisted such an order of the powers in the world.
The USA – China relationship is the main strategic relationship of the political environment at a global level. But we see a strategic confrontation between them, especially in the Indo-Pacific.
A new subject is the end of the world order settled by the USA after the 2nd WW.
Tony Blair also spoke of the end of the Western order and the rise of the East. What is the result of this strategic confusion? Rhetorical: – Countries are using this unstable environment as a possibility for change and solutions.
Brexit was based on a clear analysis realized by British specialists about the 21st-century environment and the directions of its evolution. They saw it coming, and they saw the new ascending powers: India, Iran, and Turkey.
Yet, coming back to the strategic environment, the main characteristic is the relationship between USA and China. What we see today is a more complex strategic design, very difficult to read and understand. We see a strategic triangle. Like in the 70’s when Kissinger created this strategic triangle for China to join the gang.
The challenge of Russia represents a key aspect of the new strategic environment. Russia is questioning the existing strategic and security arrangements after the 2nd WW. It started in Georgia, Crimea, and Syria. Russia wanted to become the master of the gang in the eastern flank. Thus, the challenge in the new environment is determined by the China- Russia relationship and their role in the new strategic establishment.
Let’s make now the link between the transition, the present, and the future. This is called a hegemonic war. All the conditions make it possible for this transition to hegemonic war. This kind of war is characterized by a war of information, diversion, and fake news. Because of this, we have difficulty understanding the reality on the ground.
Many years ago the Soviet Union attacked Finland, the so-called “winter war”. We saw Great Britain offering support to Finland. We saw a similar situation as in Ukraine now. Yet, 6 months later France collapsed, – it was defeated by Germany because Great Britain did not understand the context. Similarly, this war is a component of a larger war and is not to be ended at the borders of Ukraine.
This is a proxy war. We see some of the real actors involved: the USA, Great Britain, EU, France, and Germany with very different positions, and of course China and Russia. We also see new components of this hegemonic war, and I am calling it the new 30 years’ war. We are going to see a long war, even the western officials speak about this.
I also see the risk of enlarging this war in Ukraine. We see a dangerous game that can absorb Moldova in this context. We see the possibility to explode the Balkan component in this war, and also Syria.
We are going to see new components of this in the Middle East and Taiwan and a major risk of a global war. We speak about the possibility of a nuclear war – it’s crazy! because we neglect the clause of the self-destroying prophecy. But the main idea remains that we do not see a continuation of this system. Only one treaty is still valid, meaning that the USA and Russia are still talking and discussing.
Great powers make war. They make war to change the power, but they also negotiate. Still, let’s not forget that there are losers during these negotiations. President Trump said once that he will only negotiate only if something is to win, but nothing to lose. The question is who is going to pay for the negotiations?
Another speaker at this conference was Ioan Mircea Pașcu, the vice-president of the European Parliament, a Romanian politician, member of the Social Democratic Party, and a professor at the National School of Political and Administrative Studies.
Ioan Mircea Pașcu at the BSC 2022: Is this a hegemonic or a succession war? – To understand that, we need the context. It has 3 characteristics: The war context comes after the pandemic and it is complicated for us to recover after the pandemic, especially through the consequences of this war.
Yet, it is important to mention that this war had the intention of flipping the power in the direction of Russia and China. The balance of power is just to be pushed. And the Ukraine war was this push.
The inauguration of a new security in Europe is an important characteristic.
Then I have to highlight my personal opinion, a conviction: that Romania and Bulgaria were not accepted in Schengen at the special request of Russia. It agreed to a full membership for all the other states but not for us, we do not have the full membership. Now, Russia does not matter that much to our friends in the West. And in this context we believe the things are going to change, we believe we will find our way to Schengen.
The nature of the war is both: a succession of war within the Soviet Union, but also a hegemonic war. With all this, we have many conflicts in the ex-soviet space, which shows that Russia does not control the soviet space as it used to do, so the states try out to change their faith.
The consequences:
- We have the Russia miscalculations: the resilience of Ukraine was not well calculated.
To have only one line of defense as it happened now, we believe it was a disregard of the Ukrainian side.
- They took too serious their own forces, and because of this, they cannot call for a mobilization because they are in the trap of their own mistakes.
- Angela Merkel is out, and the guarantee is not there anymore, thus today Germany is the most punished country by Russia through energy and other.
- Right now Russia is backing on the European content- it is an unfriendly game.
- The next moment is the 25th September elections.
The next consequence of the war is Russia cutting its tie to the west, making the west dependent, it’s reorienting these ties towards Asia. This would be a major consequence because it’s compromising the West.
Yet we cannot exclude an important point in this discussion of power changes: do you think that big cities will be able to make the transition towards East Asia after years of working with the West?
Europeans are not anymore the main player, the political arena. The powers will interact and they prefer to play in a new game rather than in an old game which is Europe. Yet, Russia did everything it wanted to avoid.
Enlarge NATO and its powers at the borders! Destroy Russia’s credibility!
Gen James Jones, Atlantic Council at the BSC 2022: We look forward to developing the security in the Black Sea as a basic work, a cornerstone. I would like to speak about how the EU community can fight back efficiently. In this direction: we must support Ukraine economically, politically, and militarily. This is not the time to stop the support, but it is the time to enhance that support.
Of course, in the next few months, we expect changes in the energy sector. Yet we have to be persistent.
This summer there were used not only cyber-attacks as ways to conduct a war, but also nuclear threats and economic disruptions. The NATO allies and the EU remain unified to support Ukraine. We have to give hard support in the black sea region, where Romania is proving to be a leader.
Resilience remains the best solution against attacks.
Jamie Shea, Professor of Strategy and Security, University of Exeter at the BSC 2022: Russia is unfortunately in control of 20% of the Ukraine which is still a concern. We believe before winter Russia will reorganize for a new offensive in Ukraine, thus we believe the war will last more. So, the consequences should not be drawn now, but at the end. The EU allies sent support to Ukraine. The strategies are important to prevent Russian, Chinese, Iranian, or any kind of aggression.
We addressed major sanctions against Putin, we had a good leak of intelligence information revealing the Russian troops’ movement. We have to look toward other potential conflicts in the future, like the military exercises, the missiles, and the situation in Georgia and Moldova.
The NATO membership works and we saw it with the latest discussion of the NATO enlargement. Another proof is the sanctions as a reaction for weakening Russia. With all this, we need now to supply Moldova and Georgia with sufficient means to make it less easy to attack them in the future. Our allies send enormous packages of help in Ukraine, yet we have to support enough Georgia and Moldova.
NATO has put special efforts for training and helping Ukraine, especially from the military perspective. The way Russians attached Ukraine was different, they used phosphorus, cluster bombs which were forbidden by the UN, they also forced the civil society, attacked the hospitals, etc. The techniques Russia used are as those from the 2nd WW and are not effective. We also have evidence of war crimes. We found a massacre of more than 400 people in Ukraine. The War Courts are very active in regard to this war. Once the war is over we will be able to persecute the criminals, and make justice. And if with all this effort we will not be capable to make justice, the future must be grey.
We have multiple problems, like global warming and this war. We work on developing sustainable energy sources by building nuclear power plants, yet in this war context, they are dangerous, which makes it difficult to fight global warming.
We must make sure NATO is ready for a full-spectrum attack from Russia. We (NATO) must cooperate better with the EU but also with the social public institutions. We must focus on these aspects too and not only on military shopping.
There is an energetic dependence of Europe on Russia, and to reduce this it cannot be done overnight. We have to look at how we can operate with the private sector to manage this kind of crises. People die for democratic values. Yet, we have the example of Russia where people also die for autocracies and war.
In the end, we have to focus on one major purpose: to respect the promise of bringing Ukraine in the EU.
Conclusion:
With all these worries we have to pay attention to watch our back, but also let’s not fall into the trap of rushing into arming ourselves too much and starting a conflict due to the prisoner’s dilemma. To avoid these things we have to communicate, even if we don’t really like communicating with the Russian Federation. We are on the same continent, and regardless of whether it is about changing the center of power in the world, we will have to communicate with them to avoid the self-destructing prophecy.
